Fantasy Baseball's Best and Worst Values for Each Round: Kyle Tucker a first-round favorite and more

14 days until Opening Day ... 

Yep, just two measly weeks until Opening Day. Technically, just five measly days, if you want to be a pedant about it – remember, the Dodgers and Cubs are playing a two-game series in Tokyo starting Tuesday of next week, though most Fantasy leagues will draft after that date and won't include it. 

And we almost got some absolutely devastating, Earth-shattering news Wednesday night, when Bobby Witt was hit by a 96 mph fastball on his left hand and left the Royals Spring Training game. Luckily, X-rays came back negative and he's been diagnosed with just a contusion – less than ideal, certainly, but with two weeks left until Opening Day, not enough to shake my faith in him as the top player in Roto leagues. It's been a tough week for injuries, and while we know there will be more hits coming, losing one of the best players in the game before the season even starts would be dreadful. 

We dodged one, there, thankfully. The last thing we need is more injuries, especially ahead of the first truly big draft weekend of the year. About 80% of all Fantasy Baseball drafts will happen in the two weeks between Friday of this week and Opening Day – and that includes one of my biggest drafts of the year, as I'll be taking part in the Tout Wars H2H Salary Cap/Auction Draft on Sunday with some of the sharpest minds in the Fantasy industry. 

I did a H2H points salary cap draft last week and a Roto salary cap draft this week – plus an AL-only one two weeks ago – so I'm pretty sure I'm ready. But the only way to know if you're ready for a draft for sure is to practice. With that in mind, the Fantasy Baseball Today team is doing a draft marathon today – I'd like to introduce you to our Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Mega Stream on the FBT YouTube Channel!

The plan is ambitious: We're going to be doing five drafts over the span of about eight or nine hours, and we'll be live the whole time walking you through each one. And we'll be drafting on five different sites in five different formats, with the following schedule:

• 2:30 pm ET: 12-team H2H Points on CBS
• 4 pm ET: 12-team H2H categories on Yahoo
• 5:30 pm ET: 12-team H2H Points on ESPN
• 7 pm ET: 12-team Roto on NFBC
• 9:45 pm ET: Best Ball draft on Underdog

Make sure you tune in for the stream and subscribe to the YouTube channel so you don't miss anything else we're doing between now and Opening Day. Like I said, it's only two weeks, so it's time to cram. 

Today, I'll be throwing a bunch of names at you, as I'm looking for my favorite and least-favorite picks in every round of ADP. I'm using NFBC ADP over the past two weeks for these prices, and highlighting one value I like in each round and one I'll be passing on in my remaining drafts. 

Best and worst values in each round

First round

Favorite pick: Kyle Tucker

Tucker was already a first-rounder before taking another step forward as a hitter in 2024. If that was sustainable, he has top-five upside.

Least-favorite pick: Juan Soto

It's a park downgrade, with Citi Field playing a lot more like Petco Park. He's not a safe enough bet for an elite batting average or homers to overcome the lack of speed. 

Second round

Favorite pick: Yordan Alvarez

Injury concerns will push Alvarez down a bit, but he's arguably a better hitter for Fantasy than Soto if you're looking for an early, four-category star. 

Least-favorite pick: Jazz Chisholm

The upside is certainly there to justify it, but I'm surprised at how blase folks are about Chisholm's injury history. He played 147 games last season, but that included an elbow strain he played through after an August IL stint. It could have been worse. 

Third round

Favorite pick: Trea Turner

Before last May's hamstring injury, Turner was on a 50-plus steal pace. If that upside is still in there, he could be a top-five player in Fantasy. 

Least-favorite pick: Garrett Crochet

Last season was his first ever with more than 70 innings pitched. He had just 25 innings in his previous two seasons combined due to injuries. The upside is sky-high, but a top-30 pick is too much to pay for this injury track record.  

Fourth round

Favorite pick: Corbin Burnes

Burnes rediscovered the feel for his cutter last September, and he still seems to have it this spring. He's been one of the few safe bets for volume over the past half-decade, and if the cutter is working, there's still a 27% strikeout rate upside here. 

Least-favorite pick: Wyatt Langford

I get it, everyone's excited. He had an awesome September, and the skill set could be very Fantasy-friendly. But … didn't we learn our lesson last year when we pushed Langford way up draft boards based on nothing but hype? I'd be more comfortable with this price if there was more concrete evidence of elite tools on the field last season. 

Fifth round

Favorite pick: Ozzie Albies

There have been times when Albies gets pushed into the second round and I can't get on board. But I'll buy the dip coming off a couple of injuries – fractured toe, fractured wrist – that I don't expect to be lingering issues. This whole Braves lineup should bounce back. 

Least-favorite pick: Yainer Diaz

With Christian Walker representing a significant upgrade at first base and Yordan Alvarez expected to be a more-or-less full-time DH, I'm just wondering where Diaz is supposed to get 600 PA from. He's a terrific hitter, but do the Astros really want to play him 140 games behind the plate? Or are they going to sit Walker or Alvarez regularly to get Diaz time at either spot? I think his playing time edge on most of the position is less assured than you might think, and he needs that at his current price, which has leapfrogged Adley Rutschman!

Sixth round

Favorite pick: Kyle Schwarber

I wanted Brent Rooker to be my favorite pick in the fifth-round range, but then I noticed that Scharber and Marcell Ozuna are both going in the next round range. I rank them Rooker-Ozuna-Schwarber, but ultimately, I'm content to just take the last one off the board, whichever one that is. 

Least-favorite pick: Willson Contreras

And I thought I liked Contreras. Yes, he's going to be playing first base for the Cardinals, which should keep him healthier than he was behind the plate. But it's not a panacea for a soon-to-be 33-year-old who has missed plenty of time in recent years even beyond the kind of injuries that tend to happen to catchers. He could be a difference-maker as a catcher, but passes on impact bats with more upside at other positions in this range is hard to justify. 

Seventh round

Favorite pick: Luis Robert

Robert was a disaster in 2024, but we're still only one year removed from a 38-homer, 20-steal showing that saw him finish as a top-10 outfielder. Counting stats could be a problem as long as he is on the White Sox – and motivation could be, too – but Robert feels like the kind of player you want to buy coming off a down year. 

Least-favorite pick: Matt McLain

If you look past the surface-level stats, McLain's 2023 wasn't quite as impressive as it seemed – and that was before two season-ending injuries in a row. I don't mind him around the 100th pick, but he never seems to make it that far these days. 

Eighth round

Favorite pick: Marcus Semien

Semien is old enough that his decline may be irreversible. But he still made a ton of contact and still pulled the ball in the air consistently enough last year that I'm not giving up on him. He's a name to target especially if you find yourself looking short on runs – he still scored 101 in a down year. 

Least-favorite pick: Felix Bautista

Bautista is still looking for his pre-injury velocity, and the Orioles seem content to play it safe with him early in the season – he won't pitch on back-to-back days and isn't 100% guaranteed to be on the Opening Day roster. I expect he will be, ultimately, but there's just no guarantee that he's going to be the same impact closer he was. 

Ninth round

Favorite pick: Max Fried

I actually don't get the disrespect toward Fried. Sure, he's had some injury scares in recent years, but he also just got a $200 million contract that required, you know, a pretty intense physical exam. He consistently pitches deep into games and brings plenty of win upside, with consistently excellent peripherals to help overcome his iffy K rates. 

Least-favorite pick: Christian Yelich

Yelich played at an MVP level in 2024, and if he can do it again, he's a great pick. The problem is, he's a 33-year-old coming off major back surgery, and I just don't know if I want to bet on that profile staying healthy and effective. 

10th round

Favorite pick: Dylan Crews

Crews feels a little like a cheaper version of Langford – elite prospect pedigree, iffy production, and underlying data that is more "good" than "great." Langford is the better player, but Crews is the better pick at value. 

Least-favorite pick: Robert Suarez

Even at the best of times, Suarez is something less than an elite closer because of his middling strikeout rates. And he's so fastball-dependent that any dip in effectiveness for those pitches could be disastrous. There's just a razor-thin margin for error here, especially on a team with multiple very good relievers like Jason Adam and Jeremiah Estrada backing him up. 

11th round

Favorite pick: Justin Steele

Like with Fried, I just don't get the disrespect toward Steele happening here. His production has been remarkably consistent over the past three seasons, and now he's going 25 picks later than he was last season. There was a late-season elbow scare last September, which we can't totally overlook. But at this price, I think the risk is more than baked in. 

Least-favorite pick: Logan O'Hoppe

O'Hoppe brings a strong power bat to the table, but that's kind of all he brings. And with Travis d'Arnaud around, I think playing time could be tougher to come by than in 2024 when he had 522 plate appearances. I think O'Hoppe is more like a late-round pick. 

12th round

Favorite pick: Jeff Hoffman

The shoulder issue that scared the Braves and Orioles off Hoffman as a free agent shouldn't be totally overlooked. But he's been one of the half-dozen or so best relievers in baseball the past two seasons, and he's the unquestioned closer for a potential playoff club. He might be a top-five closer if health allows. 

Least-favorite pick: Xavier Edwards

There's a cohort of similar skill sets going off the board around this range, including Edwards, Brice Turang, and Pete Crow-Armstrong. Crow-Armstrong and Turange are at least elite defensive players, which mitigates any playing time risk that might be there if they don't hit. Edwards decidedly does not have that going for him – he was one of the worst defensive shortstops in the game last season. If he hits more like his .252 expected average, there's actual playing time risk, even on a shallow Marlins squad. 

13th round

Favorite pick: Sandy Alcantara

The Marlins aren't going to let Alcantara rack up complete games like it's 2022 again, but they also aren't going to baby him – something we got confirmation of from both Alcantara and Marlins manager Clayton McCullough in recent days. He looks fully healthy coming back from Tommy John surgery this spring, and while wins might be tough to come by, I do expect Alcantara to return to must-start status this season. 

Least-favorite pick: Anthony Volpe

I don't want to give up on a 23-year-old former top prospect, but Volpe feels like a one-category contributor at this point, with little in his MLB track record to point at to be optimistic about. You can find cheaper sources of speed. 

14th round

Favorite pick: Robbie Ray

This is one that feels like it might not apply in a few days because Ray's price is rising. I don't really have too many performance concerns about him – despite his 4.70 ERA last season, the stuff looked good and he got plenty of strikeouts – so it mostly comes down to health. And he's healthy right now. 

Least-favorite pick: Spencer Steer

Like ships passing in the night, Steer also might not end up a 14-rounder if his shoulder injury continues to linger – he went 199th overall in one slow draft I'm doing. I'll buy the dip if he keeps falling, but a 14th-round pick is still too expensive in a 12-teamer for a guy with a bad shoulder and iffy skill set even when healthy. 

15th round

Favorite pick: Isaac Paredes

Why aren't we higher on Paredes? Are we just looking at his disappointing second half and not considering the obvious context? He was traded to perhaps the worst ballpark in the majors for his lift-and-pull swing and predictably hit just three homers in his final 52 games with the Cubs. But he's in Houston now, arguably the best park for his swing … and he's just a mid-round corner infielder? The guy who hit 31 homers and was a top-10 3B two years ago? He's worth picking as soon as the 10th round, but any discount is worth taking advantage of.

Least-favorite pick: Reynaldo Lopez

Lopez has been a tough nut to crack all offseason – he dealt with separate shoulder and forearm injuries last season, only to come back looking even better than before. But his velocity is down this spring, and he just doesn't strike me as someone with an especially large margin for error. His xERA last season was 3.94, and I think that's probably more like what I'm expecting here. 

16th round

Favorite pick: Victor Robles

Part of why I don't have a ton of interest in Edwards, Crow-Armstrong, and the rest of the speed specialists going in the early 100s is because Robles is usually there closer to 200. His long track record of mediocrity precedes him, but he seemed to have taken some significant steps forward last season, sporting similar quality of contact metrics to those more expensive options. If I'm looking for after the first 10 rounds, I'm hoping it's from Robles – and if not him, Cedric Mullins a few rounds later. 

Least-favorite pick: Kerry Carpenter

The only way to really justify Carpenter at this price is if you believe he's going to be a full-time player after starting just two games against lefties last season. I don't see that happening, and as such, the only real difference between him and Joc Pederson is OF eligibility. Pederson is going off the board about 10 rounds later, on average. 

17th round

Favorite pick: Nico Hoerner

With Hoerner looking like he'll be ready for the second start of the season for the Cubs – he isn't traveling to Japan for the first two games – he looks like a pretty awesome value. There is some risk that he won't be quite the same guy, especially early on, as he returns from flexor tendon surgery. But if he's even close to being himself, you're talking 30 steals, a good batting average, and 90 or so runs. Yet another reason not to pay up for speed earlier in your drafts. 

Least-favorite pick: Zach Neto

Another guy returning from offseason surgery, Neto is behind Hoerner's timeline – and he's returning from a more significant injury. Neto is coming back from shoulder surgery and hasn't been cleared to throw every day yet – and it's not even clear if he'll be back in April at this point. Neto had 23 homers and 30 steals last season, but neither seems like a safe bet even if he was 100% healthy. And, right now, he isn't. 

18th round

Favorite pick: Jackson Holliday

Holliday is still showing some swing-and-miss issues this spring, though less severe than last season's when he struck out 31.3% of the time. The hope here is that the 21-year-old former top prospect can put the bat on the ball a little more consistently than during his largely overwhelmed rookie season. The Orioles are talking a lot about wanting him to run more this spring, and it's pretty easy to see how there could be 20-20 upside here even if the batting average takes a few years to make it to the majors. 

Least-favorite pick: Keibert Ruiz

I mean, look, Ruiz is probably fine, right? Waiting this long to get a catcher and getting one who shouldn't hurt your batting average too much isn't a bad outcome. The problem, of course, is that he hit just .229 last season and doesn't have much else to fall back on if he isn't hitting for average. An empty .260 average isn't bad from your No. 2 catcher, but I'd rather just wait for my second catcher. 

19th round

Favorite pick: Lucas Erceg 

Okay, so this range is actually really fun right now: In addition to Erceg, I really like Carlos Correa, Ivan Herrera, Jung Hoo Lee, Gavin Williams, and Matt Shaw. Williams and Shaw seem likely to keep moving up, and Herrera might, too – I certainly prefer him to Ruiz. But I find myself really gravitating toward Erceg as my second closer in category leagues. Carlos Estevez has been slowed this spring, and I'm not even sure he's actually going to be the Royals closer – MLB.com reported at the start of spring that Erceg is going to be used "in the biggest spots in the highest of leverage." That might be the seventh or eighth inning some nights, but it'll be the ninth plenty, to the point where I do expect 20-plus saves from Erceg along with very good all-around numbers. 

Least-favorite pick: Connor Wong

In 2024, you got a very useful .280 average and not a ton else from Wong. And that average came with a .231 expected average. So, even that fairly empty average was probably a mirage. Even as a No. 2 catcher, I generally have very little interest in Wong. 

20th round

Favorite pick: Clay Holmes

Given how strong his spring is, there's a pretty good chance Holmes won't last this long – I'm willing to take him three rounds earlier than this if needed. If Holmes isn't here, go for Jesus Luzardo, whose velocity has been up this spring after a mostly lost season with the Marlins. He's backed by a much better supporting cast in Philadelphia, and as long as his velocity stays north of 96 mph on his fastball on average, history tells us Luzardo should be plenty useful. 

Least-favorite pick: Gleyber Torres

Torres is dealing with a brutal negative park downgrade going from Yankee Stadium to Comerica Park, and I'm not sure there's much to get excited about here if he's just a 12-15-homer guy. He should play every day, of course, and I'd bet on improvement from his four steals a year ago – he had at least 10 in each of the previous three seasons – but Torres seems likely to be a batting average drain with middling counting stats at best in the Tigers lineup. Pass.